Understanding the Propensity to List Model
HouseCanary’s Propensity to List model forecasts the likelihood that a residential property will go on the market within a defined time frame—most commonly, the next three months.
What is Propensity to List?
The Propensity to List (also known as "Propensity to Sell") is a predictive percentile from 0% to 100% that estimates how likely a property is to be listed for sale in the near future. Higher scores indicate a greater chance of listing.
This score is used across HouseCanary platforms to help clients:
Identify properties likely to go on market soon
Prioritize outreach and marketing efforts
Set up automated alerts based on custom thresholds
How the Model Works
Our model uses machine learning-based survival analysis trained on decades of real estate data. It considers:
Property and mortgage characteristics
Neighborhood-level market activity and pricing trends
Historical transaction patterns
Economic and behavioral indicators
The model is refreshed monthly.
How Accurate Is It?
Internal testing shows the top 1% of properties are up to 20x more likely to list compared to a random group of properties.
What is considered a good probability?
A Propensity to List percentile of 99% is considered “Very High”, 98% is “High”, and 95% is “Medium”. Any score below 95% is considered to have a “Low” probability of being listed within 3 months.
Where to See It
You can find Propensity to List in various HouseCanary products, including CanaryAI and Portfolio Monitor, where you configure alerts to monitor changes that exceed your defined thresholds.